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2012年6月30日星期六

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买股票就是买公司的股份。买股份就是买公司的一部分业务和资产,叫投资。
投资的成败,决定于公司的成败,不是决定于股市的起落。
只要公司盈利越来越高,你的股份就会越来越值钱,你的财富也会与日俱增。
所以,买进股票之后,你应该关心的,是公司业务的进展,不是股价的起落。
投机非致富之道
股价的起落,只要每天放工后,看一看《南洋商报》的“股汇”版就足够了,不必分分钟打电话给你的股票经纪,询问股价起落。
如果你无时无刻都在担心你的股票会跌价的话,那么,你多数是投机者,不是投资者。投机者成功的少之又少,非致富之道。
如果你总是担心你所投资的公司会“烂”掉,使你的血汗钱泡汤,那么,你不是对你的公司(注意:买进股票之后,该公司就是你的,你是该公司的老板之一)了解不够透彻,就是你根本做了错误的投资。
如果你对你的公司没有信心,你就不会作长期投资,只要股价稍起,有了一点蝇头小利,就脱售惟恐不及,这种投资法,很难累积财富。
买卖取决于业绩
无法累积财富,就无法在退休时达到“财务自主”。
长期投资是“多长”?是不是永远不卖?
如果你这样想的话,你是食古不化。
股票投资的成败,既然是决定于公司的成败,那么,要投资多久,或是要退股还是要继续投资下去,决定于公司的业绩表现。
如果公司的盈利年年上升的话,你可以永远不卖。
如果公司的盈利时好时坏的话,那么你应该在公司盈利低时买进,公司盈利高时脱售。通常是根据股票的本益比作出决定。
所以,买进时最好作长期投资的打算,但是,假如公司的盈利表现,比你预期的差,而且短期内(1、2年内)不大可能有改善的话,最好当机立断,脱售你的股份,把你的资金投资于更有前途的公司。
所以,长期投资是多长,决定于公司的业绩及前途。
现代的商业社会,竞争趋于白热化,一个好的企业,往往经不起考验而没落。作为小股东,你没有必要坚持投资下去,蝉曳残声过别枝,并不是一件不光彩的事。
所以,你在买进股票之后,一定要贴身跟踪公司的业务进展。公司的一举一动,都要加以分析,看看对公司是有利还是不利。如果是不利的话,最好退股。保护你的资本,永远应该成为你投资的最重要条件。
应对年报分析透彻
怎样跟踪公司的进展?
第一,你必须养成习惯,每天进入股票交易所的网站http://www.bursamalaysia.com,阅读上市公司通过交易所发布的消息。对于你拥有股票的公司的消息,一定要细读,加以分析,以评估其对公司业务的影响,从而决定应该保留或脱售你的股票。
年报和季报,尤应深读,从主席报告到账目,都要细读,切勿放过任何细节。
尤其是账目及其附注,更要深读,从数字中看清公司的真面目。
第二,一定要多读报纸和杂志,细读与你的公司和有关行业的报道和评论,然后进行思考,从中窥探公司的前景。
以上只是“基本功”。如果要作进一步的研究,就要多读股票研究公司的分析报告,以及任何与你的公司业务有关的资讯。
勿根据过时资讯做错决定
长期跟进是重要的,商业环境和企业,有如河里的水,永远在流动,永远有波澜,一旦停止跟进,你的资讯就过时了,根据过时的资讯所作出的决定,出错的机会很高。
随手举一个例子,我在“吊机王辉高(FAVCO,7229,主板工业产品股)”一文中曾建议大家留意该公司的进展。这2天就有2项颇为重要的讯息:
第一项是昨天(6月25日)该公司与其母公司睦兴旺(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)同时宣布:辉高以澳币1500万元(4800万令吉),向睦兴旺收购在澳洲悉尼附近的吊机厂,辉高将以每股RM1,5181,发出31,678.743股新股以支付。此举对该公司有何意义?
第二项是辉高宣布取得3项总值7150万令吉的合约,为一家海外公司(FORM 700)建造塔型吊机(Tower Crane),为本地的新阳和广东的Cosco船厂各建一座岸外吊机。这3项合约需在今年杪及明年杪交货,预料将为辉高的盈利作出贡献。
第三项是英文财经日报最近专访该公司执行长,对该公司最新发展作了颇为深入的访谈。对了解该公司的业务很有帮助。
如果你是辉高的股东,或是想买进辉高的股票,你就一定要细读上述资讯。
亲访公司获第一手资料
公司访问,是获取第一手资料的最好方法,但小股东很难做到。出席常年股东大会,是会见董事,提出问题的最好机会。但在出席之前,最好有所准备,提出有助于评估公司进展的问题,不要提出可以在年报、季报及公司文告中可以找到答案的问题。
请教董事关键问题
通常大会议程,只是虚应故事,不会透露太多有用的资料,会后用茶时间是向公司董事或委员询问的最佳时刻,董事经理、财务董事和执行董事常常比主席更了解公司的业务,因此是好的交流对象。
要记住可供询问的时间很短,所以不要询问细节,要问关键性,有助于衡量公司前景的问题。如果在出席之前,你已心里有数,知道你想找出什么资讯,你通常能如愿以偿。
要养成一种习惯,随时随地注意跟股票投资和上市公司有关的讯息,这样可以提高你对有关公司的认识。有很多时候,你可以从中得到投资的灵感,以此为起点,作进一步的研究,可能有意想不到的发现。
例如最近有一位股友到上市公司置地通用(L&G,3174,主板产业股)在甲洞斯里白沙罗的办事处,想买一间共管式公寓,他发现这项建在山上,叫FORESTA的计划,首期建928间,买家反应热烈,已售出数亿令吉的单位,置地通用的股票最近交投颇热烈,可能与此有关。
有兴趣的投资者不妨从这里下手,进行研究。
你若眼中无股,心里有股,你会发现资料处处有。股票与生活,息息相关。而股票研究和投资,也是极为有趣的事,一点也不枯燥。

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